On Thursday, the U.S. stock market opened with a hint of optimism as the major indexes experienced a promising start. However, that positivity quickly dissipated, leading to a downward trend throughout the day. By the market's close, all three major U.S. indexes found themselves under significant pressure and finished lower. Investors were particularly keen on the latest earnings reports and economic indicators, attempting to glean insights into the market's future direction while continuously assessing the Federal Reserve's potential interest rate cuts. Data revealed that retail sales in December rose by only 0.4%, falling short of the anticipated 0.6%. Additionally, new claims for unemployment benefits unexpectedly rose beyond forecasts, complicating the economic landscape. Such figures undoubtedly offer the Federal Reserve more room to maintain a cautious approach to interest rate reductions this year, fostering increased uncertainty among investors regarding future market conditions.
By the end of trading, the Dow Jones Industrial Average had dropped by 68.42 points to close at 43,153.13, marking a decrease of 0.16%. The S&P 500 index fell by 12.57 points to settle at 5,937.34, down 0.21%, while the Nasdaq Composite Index experienced the sharpest decline, tumbling 172.94 points to end at 19,338.29, down 0.89%. The tech sector showed considerable weakness, which became a significant drag on the Nasdaq index. Apple shares plummeted by 4.04% after a report from Canalys indicated that the company has fallen behind Huawei and Vivo in the 2024 global smartphone market. Tesla shares also tumbled by over 3%, with Nvidia down nearly 2%. Other tech giants like Google and Amazon saw declines exceeding 1%, while Microsoft and Meta experienced minor dips.
In contrast, the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index gained 0.22%, buoyed primarily by an uptick in popular Chinese stocks. Douyu surged by 27% following the company's announcement that its board had approved a special cash dividend of $9.94 per share for shareholders. Other Asian tech firms saw gains as well; Xpeng Motors climbed over 6%, Kingsoft Cloud rose more than 3%, and both NIO and Miniso advanced over 1%.
On the individual stock front, Morgan Stanley experienced a boost of 4.03%, driven by the release of strong earnings that highlighted robust growth in its trading business during the fourth quarter. Conversely, UnitedHealth's stock dropped by 6.04%, primarily dragging down the Dow due to reported fourth-quarter revenues that fell short of market expectations.
Rick Pitcairn, Chief Global Strategist at Pitcairn, commented, "The profitability of banks serves as a market bellwether. A steepening yield curve supports bank earnings, while strong earnings reports have bolstered investor confidence." In the bond market, the yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds dipped by 3.8 basis points to 4.615%.
The U.S. Commerce Department released a highly anticipated set of data on Thursday, indicating a modest increase in retail sales for December 2024. The month-over-month retail sales growth of 0.4% fell short of the market's anticipated 0.6%. Notably, the previous month's figure was revised up from 0.7% to 0.8%. A deeper analysis of the 13 major categories of retail data revealed that ten categories experienced varying degrees of growth. Furniture and sporting goods stores stood out as significant contributors to retail growth. Additionally, auto sales saw a 0.7% increase, while rising gasoline prices boosted revenue for gas stations. Analysts interpreted these retail performance results to mean that consumer spending remained robust despite a slowdown, largely due to wage growth outpacing inflation, providing strong support for consumption.
Simultaneously, the U.S. Labor Department reported that the number of Americans applying for unemployment benefits rose by 14,000 to 217,000 for the week ending January 11, exceeding expectations of 210,000. Nonetheless, overall labor market data remain robust, indicative of resilience in the employment sector.
Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller stated on Thursday that the central bank may initiate interest rate cuts sooner than the market anticipates as inflation data continues to cool. Still, any cuts will be approached with caution. Futures markets have shown an increasing likelihood of a 25-basis-point rate cut by the Fed in May.
In a related development, Treasury Secretary nominee Brian Bessent emphasized that the dollar should continue to function as the global reserve currency. He stressed the importance of maintaining the Federal Reserve's independence while also urging for stricter sanctions against Russia's oil sector. Bessent cautioned that if the tax cuts from 2017 were allowed to expire at the end of the year, it could lead to an “economic disaster.”
In the commodities market, international oil prices saw a decline, with light crude oil futures for February delivery dropping by $1.36 to settle at $78.68 per barrel, reflecting a 1.7% decrease. Meanwhile, gold prices continued their upward trajectory, with COMEX gold futures rising by $33.10 or 1.22%, closing at $2,750.90 per ounce.